Christopher Newport University

Mark Warner Leads Potential Rivals by Wide Margin

 

News Release - October 17, 2007

Media Contact:
Dr. Quentin Kidd
Director - CNU Center for Public Policy
qkidd@cnu.edu
Office: (757) 594-7971 - Mobile : (757) 334-8002

Emily L. Lucier
Press Secretary and Media Manager
emily.lucier@cnu.edu
(757) 594-8428


(NEWPORT NEWS, Va.) - Democrat Mark Warner holds identical leads over either potential Republican opponent 51% to 27%. Former Governor Warner essentially doubles up the Republican challenger with identical partisan dynamics - 91% of the Democratic vote, upper 50's vote from Independents, and modest low teens crossover vote from Republicans. These findings are from Christopher Newport University's Virginia Poll, a new omnibus survey from the Center for Public Policy at CNU. The poll was conducted September 27 - October 1, 2007 with 700 registered voters in Virginia. The margin of error is +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence level.

Virginia Poll
CNU Center for Public Policy  

“Next November, Virginia will hold an election for U.S. Senate. If the candidates are Mark Warner, the Democrat against Jim Gilmore, the Republican, which will you most likely vote for? [If undecided] Which one do you lean towards supporting at this time?” (cells = %)

 

Dem

Rep

Ind

Mark Warner/Democrat

51

91

12

57

Jim Gilmore/Republican

27

2

73

14

Undecided

21

6

15

29

“Next November, Virginia will hold an election for U.S. Senate. If the candidates are Mark Warner, the Democrat against Tom Davis, the Republican, which will you most likely vote for? [If undecided] Which one do you lean towards supporting at this time?”
(cells = %)

 

Dem

Rep

Ind

Mark Warner/Democrat

51

91

12

56

Tom Davis/Republican

27

4

71

14

Undecided

21

5

17

30

Virginia Voters Upbeat about Direction of State, Local and State Economies

Half of Virginia 's voters (50%) have a positive view of their state's direction, while less than a quarter (24%) think the state is headed in the wrong direction. This two-to-one “right”  vs. “wrong” judgment is mirrored in most parts of the state with the exception of Hampton Roads and the Valley and Charlottesville area, where voters appear more hesitant about the direction of the state. Democrats are more optimistic than are Republican and Independents. In addition, voters by wide margins have positive views of their local economy (66% positive) and the state's economy (63% positive). Regionally, only voters in the Roanoke area assess their local economy more negatively than positively, a reflection of the high unemployment on the Southside. Voters in the Charlottesville area appear less optimistic about the state's economy, but positive about their local economy. There appears to be little partisan difference, with six out of ten or better Republicans, Independents, and Democrats rating their local and the state's economy positively. “Despite the slowing housing market, views about the direction of the state and the economy remain upbeat,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director of the CNU Center for Public Policy.

“Overall, would you say the State of Virginia is headed more in the right direction or the wrong direction?”
(cells = %)

 

NoVA/DC

Hampton Roads

Richmond

Roanoke/SW

Valley/C'ville

Dem

Rep

Ind

Right Direction

50

56

43

52

50

37

67

41

47

Mixed

13

10

15

14

14

21

9

15

14

Wrong Direction

24

23

25

23

24

23

16

30

24

DK/Refused

13

11

17

11

12

19

8

14

14

 

“Next, tell me if you rate each of the following as positive or negative . . . ”


“The health of the local economy in your area?” (cells = %)

 

NoVA/DC

Hampton Road

Richmond

Roanoke/SW

Valley/C'ville

Dem

Rep

Ind

Positive

66

75

63

74

43

59

71

69

63

Mixed

5

3

7

5

4

9

3

4

8

Negative

26

19

26

19

50

27

24

22

27

DK/Refused

3

2

4

2

3

4

1

5

2

 

“The overall health of the Virginia state economy?” (cells = %)

 

NoVA/DC

Hampton Roads

Richmond

Roanoke/SW

Valley/C'ville

Dem

Rep

Ind

Positive

63

72

55

68

52

45

62

68

64

Mixed

10

9

14

10

6

12

8

10

9

Negative

23

16

25

17

36

36

24

16

24

DK/Refused

5

3

7

5

6

8

6

6

3

 

Kaine Gets Positive Ratings, But General Assembly Panned by Voters

Twenty-two months into his term, a majority of Virginia voters hold positive views of the job Governor Kaine is doing addressing the state's major problems. Three-fourths of Democrats rate Kaine's performance positively, while Republicans are lukewarm, with only a third (36%) giving Kaine positive reviews and nearly four in ten (39%) giving him negative ratings. Six in ten Independents give Kaine positive ratings. Voters pan the job the General Assembly is doing addressing the states major problems. Only a third of voters (34%) rate the General Assembly positively, while 42% rate it negatively. Democrats and Republicans hold somewhat similar positive vs. negative views, while Independents are decidedly more negative about the General Assembly, with half of them holding negative views. “Governor Kaine appears to be sitting in a good position with strong numbers, especially amongst independents, and he has Republican voters divided. The General Assembly on the other hand, controlled by Republicans, has lost the confidence of independent voters, and that does not bode well for Republican candidates in the coming election,” said Kidd.

“Next, tell me if you rate each of the following as positive or negative . . . ”


“The job the Virginia General Assembly in Richmond is doing addressing the state's major issues and problems?” (cells = %)

 

Dem

Rep

Ind

Positive

34

39

37

27

Mixed

11

13

15

9

Negative

42

37

33

50

Don't Know

13

11

15

14

“The job Virginia Governor Tim Kaine is doing addressing the state's major issues and problems?” (cells = %)

 

Dem

Rep

Ind

Positive

55

76

36

60

Mixed

10

4

14

9

Negative

25

11

39

21

Don't Know

10

9

12

9


Survey Methodology

The Virginia Poll is provided as a public service to the citizens of Virginia. It is an omnibus public opinion survey of registered Virginia voters conducted by telephone between September 27 and October 1, 2007.  Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7% at the 95% confidence level. This means for the full sample we can be 95% confident that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3.7%. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. Where percentages for subgroups are reported, the margin of error would be higher. The poll was designed by the Center for Public Policy at CNU and conducted for CNU by FrederickPolls, LLC of Arlington, Virginia. For information or requests, contact Dr. Quentin Kidd, at (757) 594-7971 or qkidd@cnu.edu .

 

Christopher Newport University is a four-year public university in Newport News, Virginia. CNU enrolls 4,800 students in programs through its College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and the Luter School of Business and offers great teaching, small classes and an emphasis on leadership, civic engagement and honor. Visit us at www.cnu.edu.