Virginia Voters Slightly Less Upbeat about Direction of State

News Release - January 18, 2008

Media Contacts:
Dr. Quentin Kidd
Director – CNU Center for Public Policy
qkidd@cnu.edu
Office: (757) 594-7971 - Mobile: (757) 320-3980

Emily L. Lucier
Press Secretary and Media Manager
emily.lucier@cnu.edu
(757) 594-8428

(NEWPORT NEWS, Va.) - Virginia voters are more positive (48%) than negative (27%) about the state’s overall direction, but their views reflect a slight move in the “negative” direction since last October, when 50% of respondents were positive and 24% were negative about the overall direction of the state. These findings are from Christopher Newport University’s Virginia Poll, a statewide omnibus survey from the Center for Public Policy at CNU. The poll was conducted January 8-10, 2008 with 700 registered voters in Virginia. The margin of error is +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence level.

Voters in Northern Virginia and Richmond are most positive about the direction of the state, while voters in the Shenandoah Valley and Charlottesville area are most pessimistic. Democrats are far more positive about the direction of the state than are Republicans, with 60% of Democrats saying the state is moving in the right direction compared to 44% of Republicans. “These views reflect the growing anxiety people feel about the economy, with a slight drop in right direction and a slight increase in wrong direction. Still, by 2 to 1 people think things are going well in Virginia,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director of the CNU Center for Public Policy.

 

“Overall, would you say the Commonwealth of Virginia is headed more in the right direction or the wrong direction?”(cells = %)
		Oct. 2007	NoVA/ DC	Hampton Roads	Richmond	Roanoke/ SW	Valley/ C’ville	Dem	Rep	Ind
Right Direction	48	50	50	47	52	47	37	60	44	43
Mixed	15	13	13	15	14	16	19	15	14	13
Wrong Direction	27	24	27	26	27	25	34	17	31	32
DK/Refused	10	13	9	12	8	13	9	7	11	12

 

Voters Give Kaine and Local Government Thumbs Up; Feel Better About General Assembly
At the mid-point of his term, a strong majority of Virginia voters hold positive views of the job Governor Kaine is doing. Nearly 8 in 10 Democrats rate Kaine’s performance positively, while Republicans are split with just over 4 in 10 rating him positively and just over 4 in 10 rating him negatively. Both Kaine’s positives and negatives have gone up since last October. Voters also feel better about the General Assembly, with 45% rating it positively, while 31% rate it negatively. This is an 11% improvement for the General Assembly. Republicans are most positive about the General Assembly, with 51% rating it positively; Democrats are more hesitant, with only 4 in 10 giving the General Assembly a positive rating. Voters feel equally good about their local government, with 55% rating it positively and 30% negatively. Voters in Northern Virginia and Richmond are most positive, while voters in Hampton Roads and the Shenandoah Valley and Charlottesville areas least positive. “Voters are generally in a good mood and feel good about the institutions of government right now. We see some concern in regions such as Hampton Roads and the Valley, where concerns about tax rates and the regional transportation authority have some voters upset,” said Kidd.

“Next, tell me if you rate each of the following as positive or negative . . . ”

 

“The Virginia General Assembly?” (cells = %)
		Oct. 2007	Dem	Rep	Ind
Positive	45	34	41	51	43
Mixed	14	11	18	13	10
Negative	31	42	30	27	36
Don’t Know	10	13	11	9	11

 

“Your local county or city government?” (cells = %)
		NoVA/ DC	Hampton Roads	Richmond	Roanoke/ SW	Valley/C’ville
Positive	55	58	50	57	55	51
Mixed	11	9	9	10	14	16
Negative	30	28	38	30	28	28
Don’t Know	3	5	2	2	3	4

 

Voters Want General Assembly To Get Things Done
By large margins, voters want the General Assembly to compromise and get things done, and don’t want deadlock. Nearly 7 in 10 voters say they want compromise over deadlock, and this margin holds across most regions of the state and across partisan identification. “Voters nearly always want their legislators to solve problems and are always frustrated when they don’t.” Kidd said.

“As you may know, the Virginia General Assembly in Richmond is now split along party lines, with Republicans still controlling the House of Delegates and Democrats recently gaining control of the State Senate.  This political division could lead to a deadlock on numerous issues.  As the 2008 legislative session begins, would you support greater efforts on the part of Delegates and Senators to reach compromises to get things done or would you prefer they stick firmly to what they believe to be right even if it means deadlock with little getting accomplished?” (cells = %)
		NoVA/ DC	Hampton Roads	Richmond	Roanoke/ SW	Valley/ C’ville	Dem	Rep	Ind
Compromise	68	73	70	62	62	69	72	64	69
Stick to Beliefs	25	20	20	31	29	30	20	30	25
Don’t Know	7	5	10	6	9	1	8	5	6

 

Virginians Think General Assembly’s Highest Priorities Should Be Tighten Gun Laws, Crack Down On Businesses That Hire Illegal Immigrants
When it comes to legislative priorities, two gun control issues top the list of priorities voters would like the General Assembly to address – stopping gun purchases by those with a history of mental health problems and requiring background checks of gun show purchases. Both issues have strong bipartisan support, although Republicans are less supportive of requiring background checks at gun shows. A majority of Virginia voters also rate cracking down on business that hire illegal immigrants as a highest priority, but Republicans feel much more strongly than do Democrats about this issue. Other clear partisan splits emerge on issues ranging from support for a higher education bond to funding the Governor’s plan to provide funding for pre-kindergarten to some 4-year olds.

“Next I will read you a short list of issues and actions your Representatives in the Virginia General Assembly will be considering in the upcoming session.  Rate how high a priority you feel each should be accorded on a 1 to 5 scale.  “5” means HIGHEST PRIORITY, “1” means LOWEST PRIORITY, and “3” is the middle.”  (cells = %)
Issue Item	Rating as “Highest Priority”	Dem	Rep	Net Rating - Important (4-5) vs. Not Important (1-2)
Changing the law to stop people with a history of mental health problems from purchasing guns.	75	82	75	85-8
Require gun purchasers at gun shows to undergo the same background check required for guns purchased at gun shops.	68	80	66	79-10
Cracking down on businesses that employ illegal immigrants.	54	41	68	65-16
Supporting the state’s higher education bond which will provide over $1.5 Billion to Virginia’s 4-year public universities and 2-year community colleges to meet growing student enrollment needs.	48	60	38	69-10
Fully funding the Chesapeake Bay clean up effort that would modernize wastewater treatment plants and limit fertilizer run-off from farms.	44	60	34	65-12
Eliminate the abusive driver fees portion of the new transportation plan.	43	45	41	55-18
Increase spending on the state’s mental health system to put in place reforms suggested following the Virginia Tech shootings.	42	52	39	67-12
Banning smoking in all restaurants and bars	38	41	37	47-32
Reforming the business of high interest rate short-term loans, often called payday lending.	36	39	38	52-18
Funding the Governor’s plan to start providing pre-kindergarten to some 4-year olds	30	46	19	44-30
Changing the way Legislative Districts are drawn	15	20	11	24-26

 

Releases to Come
January 22: Detailed views on state budget, illegal immigration, and redistricting

Survey Methodology
The Virginia Poll is provided as a public service to the citizens of Virginia. It is an omnibus public opinion survey of registered Virginia voters conducted by telephone between January 8-10, 2008.  Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7% at the 95% confidence level. This means for the full sample we can be 95% confident that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3.7%. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. Where percentages for subgroups are reported, the margin of error would be higher. The poll was designed by the Center for Public Policy at CNU and conducted for CNU by FrederickPolls, LLC of Arlington, Virginia. For information or requests, contact Dr. Quentin Kidd, at (757) 594-7971 or qkidd@cnu.edu.

 

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