How to Fix Budget Shortfall?
Virginians Want To Cut Spending, Avoid Tax Increases Or Rainy Day Fund

News Release - January 22, 2008

Media Contacts:
Dr. Quentin Kidd
Director – CNU Center for Public Policy
qkidd@cnu.edu
Office: (757) 594-7971 - Mobile: (757) 320-3980

Emily L. Lucier
Press Secretary and Media Manager
emily.lucier@cnu.edu
(757) 594-8428

(NEWPORT NEWS, Va.) - A majority of Virginia voters (56%) want to balance any revenue shortfalls by cutting spending without raising taxes or dipping into the state’s Rainy Day Fund. About a third (31%) support both spending cuts and dipping into the Rainy Day Fund, while just under 10% support raising taxes to balance the budget. These findings are from Christopher Newport University’s Virginia Poll, a statewide omnibus survey from the Center for Public Policy at CNU. The poll was conducted January 8-10, 2008 with 700 registered voters in Virginia. The margin of error is +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence level. Republicans are far more supportive of balancing budget shortfalls by cutting spending (64%) without raising taxes or dipping into the Rainy Day Fund, while Democrats are more interested in either a combination of tax increases (15%) or a combination of reduced spending and tapping into the Rainy Day Fund (35%). “These views reflect a fiscally prudent approach on the part of voters to a slowing economy. You see some partisan differences, but across the board you see caution on the part of voters,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director of the CNU Center for Public Policy.

 

“As you may or may not know, because of the economic slowdown Virginia is projected to have a budget shortfall next year. Virginia has a reserve fund, called the “Rainy Day Fund”, to meet needs in critical budget situations which currently has over a Billion dollars in it. Given this, which of these three general approaches to this budget deficit problem do you support? ”(cells = %)
		NoVA/ DC	Hampton Roads	Richmond	Roanoke/ SW	Valley/ C’ville	Dem	Rep	Ind
Reduce spending on some programs but continue to fund most programs at their current level by tapping the Rainy Day Reserve Fund	31	31	26	36	31	33	35	29	31
Cover the budget shortfall with tax increases but don’t touch the Rainy Day Reserve Fund	9	11	8	5	7	12	15	4	7
Cover the shortfall by reducing spending as much as needed but don’t raise taxes and don’t tap the Rainy Day Reserve Fund	56	52	61	56	58	54	44	64	57
Don’t Know	5	7	5	3	4	1	5	2	5

 

What To Cut First? Transportation, Social Services
When voters were asked to PRIORITIZE the areas they would cut first, transportation and social services to low-income Virginians topped the list, with 55% of voters choosing transportation as their first or second choice. There was little partisan difference with this first choice. However, partisan differences did emerge beyond transportation, with Democrats more supportive of cutting public safety and Republicans more supportive of cutting social services and health care spending. “When asked to make hard choices about budget cuts in core service areas, Virginians pick transportation and seem to want to protect education and health care,” noted Kidd.

 

Voters Send Mixed Signals On Illegal Immigrants
On four specific illegal immigration policy tests, a majority of Virginia voters support two policies and oppose two others. Slight majorities (55% and 53%) support giving authority to local police to stop any driver they suspect of being an illegal immigrant, and support having local governments denying services to anyone without proper documented legal status. However, majorities of 58% and 75% oppose splitting immigrant families by deporting undocumented parents while U.S.-born children stay or denying hospital care to pregnant or seriously ill illegal immigrants. When it comes to the economy, two-thirds of Virginia voters believe a loss of the state’s illegal immigrant workforce would have negative consequences for the state’s economy, including 69% who say loss of this workforce would be a “problem” for the state’s economy and 65% who feel wages and consumer prices would go up if illegal immigrant workers were no longer available. “Voters think illegal immigrants play a role in Virginia’s economy and that the economy would suffer without them. But, voters support a general crackdown on illegal immigrants at the same time that they shy away from splitting illegal immigrant families and denying hospital care to illegal immigrants. These views reflect, I think, the complex nature of this problem for most Virginians.” Kidd said.

"The next couple of questions have to do with the issue of illegal immigration which has been a prominent topic in the news lately.
Tell me if you SUPPORT or OPPOSE each of the following actions. "

“Having Virginia's local government’s deny any and all local government services to anyone, including children, without proper documented legal status” (cells = %)
		NoVA/ DC	Hampton Roads	Richmond	Roanoke/ SW	Valley/ C’ville	Dem	Rep	Ind
Support	53	52	53	53	55	52	33	67	56
Oppose	41	46	39	41	37	42	59	28	41
Don’t Know / Refused	6	3	8	6	8	6	8	5	3

 

“Giving local police the authority to stop any driver they suspect might be an illegal immigrant to check their legal status?” (cells = %)
		NoVA/ DC	Hampton Roads	Richmond	Roanoke/ SW	Valley/ C’ville	Dem	Rep	Ind
Support	55	48	58	56	65	51	38	73	55
Oppose	42	52	41	49	29	48	60	24	44
Don’t Know / Refused	2	0	1	3	6	1	2	3	1

 

“Splitting immigrant families by deporting the illegal immigrant parents but allowing their U.S.-born citizen children to stay?” (cells = %)
		NoVA/ DC	Hampton Roads	Richmond	Roanoke/ SW	Valley/ C’ville	Dem	Rep	Ind
Support	35	35	37	38	33	34	30	43	32
Oppose	58	60	57	56	57	57	65	50	59
Don’t Know / Refused	7	6	6	6	10	9	5	7	9

 

““Denying hospital emergency room care to illegal immigrants, including children, even if they are pregnant or have serious life threatening conditions?” (cells = %)
		NoVA/ DC	Hampton Roads	Richmond	Roanoke/ SW	Valley/ C’ville	Dem	Rep	Ind
Support	21	20	28	20	21	18	16	27	18
Oppose	75	78	68	76	72	79	80	68	78
Don’t Know / Refused	4	2	4	4	7	3	4	4	3

 

“Do you think if Virginia were to somehow suddenly lose its illegal immigrant workforce, that this would be a big problem for the state’s economy, a small problem, or have no real impact?” (cells = %)
		NoVA/ DC	Hampton Roads	Richmond	Roanoke/ SW	Valley/ C’ville	Dem	Rep	Ind
Big Problem	31	36	24	31	25	36	43	21	28
Small Problem	38	35	40	37	41	37	32	41	41
No Real Impact	28	27	32	29	30	25	24	34	27
Don’t Know / Refused	3	2	4	3	4	1	1	4	4

 

“Do you think the sudden loss of Virginia’s illegal immigrant workforce would cause wages and prices for products or services to go up a lot, up a little, or have no real impact on these?” (cells = %)
		NoVA/ DC	Hampton Roads	Richmond	Roanoke/ SW	Valley/ C’ville	Dem	Rep	Ind
Go up a lot	19	20	15	15	19	24	25	14	18
Go up a little	46	47	43	50	40	52	49	45	48
No Real Impact	33	32	40	31	38	19	24	39	32
Go down	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0
Don’t Know / Refused	2	1	3	2	2	4	1	1	2

 

Virginians Support Bipartisan Approach to Redistricting
While redistricting is not one of the most important issues this year for Virginia voters, when given two independent choices, voters express higher support for an independent bipartisan commission (73%) than elected officials controlling redistricting (43%). Republicans are most skeptical of an independent bipartisan process, but still prefer it over elected officials drawing lines by 66% to 58%.

"Changing subjects:  After the next 2010 national census, Virginia's Legislative District boundary lines will have to be redrawn to reflect population growth and shifts.  Tell me if you AGREE or DISAGREE with each of the following two statements about this process."

“Elected officials know their Districts best and should be in charge of the redistricting process of drawing Legislative district boundary lines” (cells = %)
		NoVA/ DC	Hampton Roads	Richmond	Roanoke/ SW	Valley/ C’ville	Dem	Rep	Ind
Strongly Agree	16	11	18	17	20	19	17	17	14
Somewhat Agree	33	25	32	36	38	39	25	41	28
Somewhat Disagree	21	27	19	14	18	19	24	22	19
Strongly Disagree	24	29	24	27	17	19	28	15	31
Don’t Know / Refused	6	7	7	6	6	3	6	5	7

 

“An independent bipartisan commission should be in charge of the redistricting process of drawing Legislative district boundary lines” (cells = %)
		NoVA/ DC	Hampton Roads	Richmond	Roanoke/ SW	Valley/ C’ville	Dem	Rep	Ind
Strongly Agree	47	53	46	48	40	45	51	40	54
Somewhat Agree	26	24	22	29	26	33	25	26	25
Somewhat Disagree	12	10	12	11	14	10	13	15	7
Strongly Disagree	10	8	12	6	11	12	6	13	9
Don’t Know / Refused	6	5	8	6	9	0	5	5	6

 

Survey Methodology
The Virginia Poll is provided as a public service to the citizens of Virginia. It is an omnibus public opinion survey of registered Virginia voters conducted by telephone between January 8-10, 2008.  Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7% at the 95% confidence level. This means for the full sample we can be 95% confident that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3.7%. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. Where percentages for subgroups are reported, the margin of error would be higher. The poll was designed by the Center for Public Policy at CNU and conducted for CNU by FrederickPolls, LLC of Arlington, Virginia. For information or requests, contact Dr. Quentin Kidd, at (757) 594-7971 or qkidd@cnu.edu.

 

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Christopher Newport University is a four-year public university in Newport News, Virginia. CNU enrolls 4,800 students in programs through its College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and the Joseph W. Luter III College of Business and Leadership and offers great teaching, small classes and an emphasis on leadership, civic engagement and honor.
Visit us at www.cnu.edu.

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