FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 17, 2008Media Contact:
McCain leads Obama in Also…
( Voters view McCain as better able to handle many of the issues important in this year's election, with the exception of health care. On the economy, the war in
Overall, voters are unhappy with the direction of country, with 64.4% saying things are headed in the wrong direction. Nearly a quarter of voters (24.2%) say the country is headed in the right direction. Nearly six in ten voters (64.4% ) disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president, with 33.4% giving the president mixed reviews and only 7.6% approving of the job he is doing.
Warner leads Gilmore by wide margin
Voters view Warner as better able to handle all of the important issues in this election, many by double digit margins.
Over nine in ten voters also strongly support or support the development of alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, hydrogen, and electric cars. Asked which one – expanded domestic oil and gas exploration or the development of alternative sources of energy – is most likely to provide long term relief to the high cost of oil, just over six in ten voters say the development of alternative sources of energy compared to 9.4% who say expanded oil and gas exploration.
Voters increasingly worried about direction of state
Only 45% of voters say the state is headed in the right direction. This is a 5% drop from September 2007, and a 3% drop from January 2008. Just over three in ten (32.2%) of voters think the state is headed in the wrong direction, an increase of 8% since fall 2007. Asked who they blame for the failed special legislative session on transportation, voters spread the blame far and wide, with 64.6% saying that the Republicans who control the House, Democrats who control the Senate, and Governor Kaine all share responsibility for the failure. A majority of voters would like the Governor and General Assembly to cut all programs equally if budget cuts have to be made. Nearly six in ten voters (55.4%) take that position, while 14.8% say cut transportation first and just over ten percent (11.6%) say cut social services first. Finally, looking ahead to 2009, all of the potential 2009 gubernatorial candidates have their work cut out for them in terms of introducing themselves to the voters. Attorney General Bob McDonald is the best known among the potential candidates, with 25.8% of voters having either a favorable or unfavorable view of him. However, nearly six in ten voters have not heard of him. Nearly six in ten voters have not heard of Bill Bowling, and three out of every four voters have not heard of Creigh Deeds or Brian Moran.
Survey Methodology The Virginia Poll is provided as a public service to the citizens of
Center for Public Policy at Q1 First, are you registered to vote in 100.0 ............. Yes 0 ............. No Q2 Did you register to vote recently so you could vote in the presidential election this year, or were you already registered to vote? 6.0 ............. Registered to vote recently 94.0 ............. Already registered to vote Virginia General: Q3 Overall, would you say right now that things in the
Spring ‘08 Fall ‘07 48 50 15 13 27 24 10 13 45.0 ............. Right direction 15.6 ............. Mixed 32.2 ............. Wrong direction 9.2 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q4 As you know, the Virginia General Assembly recently held a special session to try to solve the state's transportation problem, but failed to do so. Who do you think is most to blame for the failure, 12.8 ............. Republicans who control the House of Delegates, 5.6 ............. Democrats who control the state Senate, 9.0 ............. Governor Tim Kaine 64.6 ............. They all share some of the blame? 8.0 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q5 I'm now going to read to you the names of some people in politics. Tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each, or if you haven't heard of them [names rotated]. Q5A Bob McDonald 18.2 ............. Favorable 7.6 ............. Unfavorable 57.2 ............. Haven't heard of him 17.0 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q5B Brian Moran 8.8 ............. Favorable 6.8 ............. Unfavorable 74.0 ............. Haven't heard of him 10.4 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q5C Creigh Deeds 8.6 ............. Favorable 5.2 ............. Unfavorable 72.0 ............. Haven't heard of him 14.2 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q5D Tim Kaine 58.0 ............. Favorable 30.6 ............. Unfavorable 3.4 ............. Haven't heard of him 8.0 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q5E Bill Bowling 14.8 ............. Favorable 8.2 ............. Unfavorable 60.2 ............. Haven't heard of him 16.8 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q5F Mark Warner 73.2 ............. Favorable 19.4 ............. Unfavorable 2.4 ............. Haven't heard 5.0 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q5G Jim Gilmore 44.2 ............. Favorable 36.2 ............. Unfavorable 8.4 ............. Haven't heard of him 11.2 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q6 As you know, the economy has slowed in recent months and this may cause the Governor and the General Assembly to cut spending. If spending cuts have to be made, which of the following areas would you cut first, or would you cut all of them equally? 2.2 ............. Education 4.2 ............. Public safety 14.8 ............. Transportation 1.4 ............. Health care 11.6 ............. Social services to low-income Virginians 55.4 ............. Cut all equally 10.4 ............. Don't Know/Refused Virginia Senate Election: Q7 Shifting now to the U.S. Senate race in 54.4 ............. Warner the Democrat 30.0 ............. Gilmore the Republican 15.6 ............. Undecided Q8 [UNDECIDED in Q7 only] Toward whom are you leaning, [names rotated] Warner the Democrat or Gilmore the Republican? 53.8 ............. Warner the Democrat 46.2 ............. Gilmore the Republican Horse Race including leaners: 62.8 ............. Warner the Democrat 37.2 ............. Gilmore the Republican Q9 Regardless of whom you support for U.S. Senate, which candidate - Warner or Gilmore - would do a better job as a U.S. Senator addressing: Q9A The economy 59.4 ............. Warner 28.6 ............. Gilmore 12.0 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q9B The war in 46.8 ............. Warner 32.4 ............. Gilmore 20.8 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q9C The high cost of fuel 47.6 ............. Warner 28.0 ............. Gilmore 24.4 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q9D Terrorism 47.4 ............. Warner 33.4 ............. Gilmore 19.2 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q9E Health care 54.4 ............. Warner 26.8 ............. Gilmore 18.8 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q10 One proposal to deal with the high cost of oil in the Would you say that you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose drilling for oil off the coast of 28.4 ............. Strongly Support 40.6 ............. Support 13.4 ............. Oppose 11.6 ............. Strongly Oppose 6.0 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q11 Another proposal to deal with the high cost of oil in the Would you say that you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose the development of alternative sources of energy? 62.2 ............. Strongly Support 30.8 ............. Support 1.8 ............. Oppose 3.4 ............. Strongly Oppose 1.8 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q12 If you had to pick between expanding domestic oil and gas exploration or the development of alternative energy sources, which do you think is most likely to provide long term relief to the high cost of oil in the 19.4 ............. Expand domestic oil and gas exploration 62.4 ............. Develop alternative sources of energy 9.4 ............. Neither one 8.8 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q13 Turning now to national politics…Overall, would you say right now that things in the United States are headed more in the right direction or the wrong direction? 24.2 ............. Right direction 7.0 ............. Mixed 64.4 ............. Wrong direction 4.4 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q14 In general do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president? 7.6 ............. Approve 58.4 ............. Disapprove 33.4 ............. Unsure .6 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q15 If the election for president were held today, for whom would you be most likely to vote,[names rotated] Barack Obama the Democrat or John McCain the Republican, or haven't you decided? 39.0 ............. Barack Obama the Democrat 48.4 ............. John McCain the Republican 12.6 ............. Undecided Q16 [UNDECIDED in Q15 only] Toward whom are you leaning, [names rotated] Obama the Democrat or McCain the Republican? 57.1 ............. Obama the Democrat 42.9 ............. McCain the Republican Horse Race including leaners: 46.2 ............. Obama the Democrat 53.8 ............. McCain the Republican Q17 Regardless of whom you support for president, which candidate - Obama or McCain - would do a better job addressing: Q17A The economy 46.0 ............. Obama 46.8 ............. McCain 7.2 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q17B The war in 38.2 ............. Obama 56.8 ............. McCain 5.0 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q17C The high cost of fuel 40.6 ............. Obama 46.2 ............. McCain 13.2 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q17D Terrorism 31.4 ............. Obama 61.2 ............. McCain 7.4 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q17E Health care 46.0 ............. Obama 41.6 ............. McCain 12.4 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q18 How would you rate the selection of Sarah Palin, the Governor of Alaska, as John McCain's Vice Presidential candidate? Would you rate the selection as excellent, good, fair, or poor? 34.8 ............. Excellent 22.6 ............. Good 13.8 ............. Fair 25.6 ............. Poor 3.2 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q19 How would you rate the selection of Joseph Biden, the Senator from 18.8 ............. Excellent 33.8 ............. Good 24.6 ............. Fair 18.8 ............. Poor 4.0 ............. Don't Know/Refused Demographics: Q20 [respondent gender] 50.0 ............. MALE 50.0 ............. FEMALE Q21 [respondent age] 3.0 ............. 18-29 9.2 ............. 30-39 22.4 ............. 40-49 25.0 ............. 50-59 13.6 ............. 60-64 26.6 ............. 65-older .2 ............. Refused Q22 [respondent education] 50.6 ............. Four-year university degree or higher 27.8 ............. Some college or two-year associates degree 18.4 ............. High school diploma or GED 3.0 ............. Did not finish high school .2 ............. Refused Q23 [respondent income] 44.0 ............. $75,000 or higher 22.8 ............. Between $50,000 and $74,999 14.8 ............. Between $25,000 and $49,000 8.4 ............. Less than $25,000 10.0 ............. Don't Know/Refused Q24 [respondent party identification] 27.6 ............. Democrat 32.0 ............. Republican 37.8 ............. Independent 2.6 ............. Other/Refused Q25 [respondent race/ethnicity] 9.8 ............. African-American 78.6 ............. White 1.8 ............. Latino/Hispanic 2.4 ............. Asian American 4.8 ............. Other 2.6 ............. Don't Know/Refused Survey Methodology: The Virginia Poll is provided as a public service to the citizens of |
46.2%. Two groups appear to be giving McCain a boost over Obama: independent voters and women. McCain leads Obama among independent voters by a margin of 52.9% to 47.1%, and is even with Obama among women voters, 49.6% to 50.4%. Obama has strong support among African American voters (91.8%), and nearly four in ten white voters support him (40.7%). These findings are from the Christopher Newport University Virginia Poll conducted September 10-14 of 500 registered voters. 
In the race to replace retiring U.S. Senator John Warner, former Governor Mark Warner leads former Governor Jim Gilmore by 25.6%. Just over six in ten (62.8%) voters support Warner while 37.2% support Gilmore. Warner's strength stretches across all groups, leading Gilmore amongst independents, men, women, African Americans, and white voters. Warner even garners support from a quarter (24.4%) of Republicans.
Christopher Newport University is a four-year public university in Newport News, Virginia. CNU enrolls 4,800 students in programs through its College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and the Joseph W. Luter III College of Business and Leadership and offers great teaching, small classes and an emphasis on leadership, civic engagement and honor. Visit us at www.cnu.edu.